George Sugihara Robert May Hao Ye Chih-hao Hsieh Ethan Deyle Michael Fogarty Stephan Munch. Detecting Causality in Complex Ecosystems. Science 2012: 338(6106): 496-500. DOI: 10.1126-science.1227079.
Abstract
Identifying causal networks is important for effective policy and management recommendations on climate epidemiology financial regulation and much else. We introduce a method based on nonlinear state space reconstruction that can distinguish causality from correlation. It extends to nonseparable weakly connected dynamic systems (cases not covered by the current Granger causality paradigm). The approach is illustrated both by simple models (where in contrast to the real world we know the underlying equations-relations and so can check the validity of our method) and by application to real ecological systems including the controversial sardine-anchovy-temperature problem.
